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Two legs good...
Page 68
Page 69
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Tractors grab the limelight but rigids are still the backbone of the industry so it pays to keep abreast of market trends. CAP can help.
These vehicles have always been the workpremium tractors they are subject to far less horses of secondary distribution, often run by hype and emotional marque loyalty so residual own-account operators. values do not vary as widely between the various Lacking the glamour of the marques as they do with tractors. The 18-tonne sector has historically been one of the most stable in the HGV market, but it is currently coming under pressure.
In 2002 and this year there has been a dramatic growth insoles of three-axle distribution rigids, with a corresponding reduction in registrations of 18-tanners (see chart above).We expect this sector to end the year at a volume of around 7,100. Once again the driver shortage and potential problems caused by the Working Time Directive are leading operators to re-assess the types of vehicle required for secondary distribution in the future —many are now choosing three-axle rigids for their increased payload, offset by only a relatively small increase in running costs.
Another result of the driver shortage is that an increasing number of 18-tonners are being specified with high-roof sleeper cabs.
We forecast that the increasing demand for three-axle models will continue at the expense of the two-axle sector and we have been reducing our predicted residual values,as can be seen in the index chart for typical day-cab curtainsiders (see above). When looking at the individual models that make up this $ in this chart (see above) we can see the general trend, ar comparatively few changes in relative positioningl,vithi 18-tonne market.The P94 Scania is still perceived to be the best of I bunch, trading off the excellent reputation enjoyed by Scania tract, with the Atego not far behind, rnaintaining Mercedes' long-standir good reputation in this market.
We then see the main pack of vehicles, ending with the latest Dal CF65.220, Renault Premium 220.18. Volvo FLE.220,ERF ECM6.; and MAN 18.555 Urban models.
Of these Daf and Renault have the most driver appeal;Volvo tra off its premium brand image, despite a dated cab (with probably th worst sleeper version in this sector). ERF uses the Distribution cab from its owner MAN, and the MAN chosen is the L2000 Urban cat MAN and ERF also use designs that have seen a long life.
The remaining player is Iveco, which has historically lagged behi the pack in terms of residual values. However, the introduction of ti new Eurocargo versions earlier this year should go some way towa redressing the balance,as can be seen in the uplift over the past qua In general we feel that the 18-tonne sector will see a gentle reduc in resale values over the next two years as popularity gradually dim ishes, followed by a period of stability.
However, the WorkingTime Directive may well have an effect 01 vehicle and body choices as companies analyse their operations, so may have to revise our forecasts accordingly.