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The construction outlook remains bleak
Page 48
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THERE WILL BE no rapid improvement for transport firms working in the construction business as the worst forecasts yet from the Construction Products Association (CPA) follow closely on the heels of the government admitting that it will fall far short of its social housing targets.
The outlook for the construction industry has deteriorated sharply in the past three months, reports the CPA.
It says output will fall by a record 16% in 2009, compared with the April forecast, which indicated a fall of 12%. Prospects for 2010 have also declined, with the CPA now forecasting a further fall of 5%, compared with its earlier predictions of 3.4%.
The CPA does not now expect any significant increase in construction output until 2012; and by the end of the forecast period in 2013, the industry will have recovered only to the levels of output achieved in 1999. Other key aspects of the latest forecasts from the CPA are: • Offices construction to fall by 50% in less than two years • Retail new build to fall by 42% by the end of 2010 • Rail construction to increase almost threefold by 2013 • Industrial construction in 2011 to be worth less than half its value in 2007 These forecasts come just weeks after an announcement from the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown that the government will miss its own target from the 2007 Housing Green Paper.
Back in 2007, the government announced that it would provide at least 70,000 affordable homes a year by 2010/11, but now says only 56,450 affordable homes will be delivered, missing the target by a considerable margin.