Sales slump set to continue
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• Transport companies will not have the money or the confidence to spend more on new light trucks for at least another year, according to a report from motor industry analysts DRI/ McGraw-Hill. But continental light truck sales will grow 5% in 1992 after a 5% decline last year, says the report_
Gloom over projected UK sales has led DRI to revise its forecast downwards. The report says: "With consumer and business confidence continuing at very low levels economic recovery will be delayed until well into next year, and when it comes it will be very weak by historical standards." DRI European light trucks manager Carol Thomas says: "The carderived van market will pick up next year, as will medium vans, but it will be a very slow recovery... even by 1997, and with steady improvement over the next few years, volumes will still be well below the peaks of the late 1980s."
The heavy van market is forecast to decline this year to about 2,200 units, compared with 4,200 in the 1989 boom. The medium van market is expected to fall by around 4% this year to around 81,000, also half the 1989 level. However, from next year until 1997 operators are expected to reinvest "quite strongly" in vehicles in this sector.
DRI also predicts that sales in the "devastated" pickup market will reach 11,900 units this year — yet again, representing half the 1989 level.
Sales of car-derived vans are forecast to hold steady this year at around 58,300 units boosted by sales of high-cube variants and operators choosing carderived vans over microvans.
For Europe as a whole DRI expects total light truck sales to grow by 5% in 1992, to 1.7 million units. This improvement is expected to come from strong demand in Germany and for offroad vehicles throughout the Continent.
Truck dealers and manufacturers also face a lean autumn after eight months of poor sales, says Glass's Guide. New vehicle compounds remain well stocked, cash customers are a thing of the past and finance continues to be difficult to arrange, it says.