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"WHAT THE S TARS FORETELL"

EARL NUFFIELD, Governing Director, Morr's Commercial Cars, Ltd.

ASCRIBE named Lowell many years ago wrote, " Don't never prophesy—onless ye know," and in so saying he might have been dealing with the very problem your Editor wants me to solve, namely. the future of the British mat transport industry, both at home and overseas.

Let me say at once that the future of industry, be it the motor trade or any other, is dependent on the confidence of the buying public. If money be flowing easily, then prosperity will be in the ascendancy ; but if capital be frozen and not utilized in the way it Should be, buywill be of that stop-and-start kind which immobilizes, to a great extent, the energies of production.

It is no good our sticking our !heads into the sand, ostrich -like, and . trying to fool ourselves into the belief that the year through which, we have just passed has not left its. mark. It _very definitely has, but the really s bright star in the horizon is Mr. Chamberlain.

I have no desire . to turn these remarks into a political diatribe, but I am a staunch upholder of our Prime Minister and his policy. He has done more than any other living man to try to get the world to see that differences backed up by threats lead to one result only—universal disaster, His method of personal contact with the heads of other powers is the only practical way to ensure •a reasonably long period of

tranquillity. If he be successful— and we all hope that he will be— then we can, with a full measure of confidence, bend all our efforts in the direction of development, and so create more employment for the workmen of Great Britain and peace for the world

I have mentioned these matters because political activity is, in this complex international system of ours, inextricably bound up with business, and it is because I have faith in the ability and fixedness of purpose of Mr. Chamberlain that I look forward to the future with optimism.

There are very definite signs that home trade is improving, and as our progressive industry must undeniably emerge from the recession far more competent than it was before this set in, we shall take full advantage of the improvement in conditions. As to overseas business, the c32 Government is very much on the alert and the new Export Guarantees Bill is a practical indication of its desire to assist.

To conclude on a personal note. the order books of my companies gave me that comfortable feeling of real content, and the many people I have talked to, both at the motor shows and since, subscribe to my view that the road transport industry will share in the general revival.

LORD AUSTIN, K.B.E., LL.D., J.P-, Chairman, The Austin Motor Co., Ltd.

FEW of us will regret the passing of 1938 with its difficulties and international discords, and yet, since the motor exhibition at Earls Court in October, the majority of motor concerns in this country experienced a definite improvement in business. The end of the year saw no slowing up in demand and finished on a strong note.

Speaking for my own company, I can say that we begin 1939 with the confidence and enthusiastic anticipation that' a full order book inspires, strengthened by our new developments in the commercial field.

Already the export demands for.. cars exceed those for the first period of last year, and the advent of Austin commercial vehicles has aroused great enthusiasm in our overseas markets.

The ,main concern is the uncertainty of international affairs—shall we be allowed to develop the trade opportunities that 1939 unquestionably affords? Personally, as .a confirmed optimist, I think we shall. This question, however, will be answered to a great extent by the actions of our legislators.

After all, public confidence is the deciding factor in trade expansion, and this can be brought about only if the country be convinced beyond doubt that the measures taken by the Government are sufficiently prompt and energetic to make the adventures and sword-rattling exhibitions of other governments unimpressive and unprofitable.

Taking all considerations into account, I think we can look forward to increased trade in the coming year.

MR. W. E. ROOTES, Chairman, Rootes, Ltd.

THE immediate future of this country's road transport indus try must necessarily depend to a certain extent on the outcome of the railways' agitation for what they term "a square deal." In this connection, I remember, years ago, the horrified outcry raised by the tram authorities when mechanically propelled buses first invaded the streets. The situation was neatly summed up by a Punch cartoon. It showed a boxing ring; the contestants were a bus and'a tram. The tram had dropped to its knees from a stiff uppercut, and Was unable to land a counter blow because its feet were fixed to its rails. The bus, standing back out of harm's way, was saying in the caption: "That's your trouble—you can't sidestep."

There is a parallel here to the present road and railway transport controversy; for myself, I am convinced that nothing can hinder the steady progress of what I may term the " mobile wheel." At the same time, any just claims by the railways should be immediately acknowledged, as should any handicaps that are being laid upon legitimate road transport. A "square deal" for all concerned is what is required.

The road transport trade is particularly sensitive to the political and industrial barometers. Both are steadily moving towards "set fair." The menacing European storm clouds are being broken up ; of equal significance, a successful start has been made in the overdue revival of capital investment in industry. Nor are these welcome signs confined to this country ; the outlook for world trade generally has a more promising appearance There is abundant evidence of better conditions in America, and if progress there be maintained, world export trade must assuredly benefit. I welcome the Government's action in guaranteeing credits for British exporters ; whilst not a solution, it is a contribution towards combating subsidized sales in overseas markets.

Sales figures from the -Rootes' Commercial Vehicle Division emphasize the favourable trend of the road

transport trade. During the past• three months, Comrner and Karrier have peaked the figures of the corresponding period of 1937; both here and abroad. I feel convinced that these figures are stable gains, reflecting renewed confidence.

Even greater possibilities would be offered in 1939 if there were some definite assurance that the question of roads would receive prompt attention. Commissions have probed this problem, and their findings have had enthusiastic support from apparently all save those in a position to act upon them.

Road transport, preserving almost countless lines of communication, plays a vital part in the country's defence. For that reason alone, the Government should surely pay sympathetic, and immediate attention to this urgent matter. The need is for a broad outlook, envisaging not only existing conditions, but also those that will obtain 50 years hence.

MR. A. F. PALMER PHILLIPS, Director of Sales, Vauxhall Motors, Ltd.

WHILST it might be foolish to be YY wildly optimistic about the immediate future, I do feel that, taking the long view, all of us who are connected with the road transport industry have every reason to look ahead with quiet confidence.

I have naturally been particularly interested in the campaign of the railways for their "square deal," and I am in agreement with the British Road Federation in that I think that at last the great road v. rail problem is being approached from the right angle.

As the railways no longer have a monopoly, it is unfair that they should still be hampered by restrictions imposed when they had. At the same time, whilst the best features of the present systems of licensing goods and .passenger road vehicles should be retained, the bars to enterprise should be removed, so that operators are not restricted in the services they offer or the number of vehicles they run.

We should then have free competition, traders would have an unfettered choice of transport—and a much happier state of affairs all around. My opinion is that things will ultimately go that way, for road transport is now a force to be .reckoned with.

Looking away from home, it must be admitted that the international situation is far from healthy, but here, again, I refuse to be pessimistic. I am neither a politician nor a diplomat, but I feel quite certain that we are on the threshold of an era of sanity.

Highly developed as it is in this and some other countries, so far as the world is concerned road transport is only in its infancy. Whole countries have to be opened up, thousands of miles of roads built. And road transport will be called upon to supply the facilities for that free movement of goods without which there can be no progress, no civilization and no lasting peace.

MR. C. W. REEVE,

Chairman and Managing Director, The Associated Equipment Co., DESPITE an acknowledged recession in trade, the year 1938 will, in terms of sales, be recorded as the most successful we have ever had. Whilst legislative measures continue to frustrate the creation of new transport undertakings, there are still opportunities for individual -expansion, and this, with a steady demand for replacement vehicles, should make the prophecy of sound business

during 1939 reasonably accurate. The anticipation of a large volume of orders is reflected in the company's action during the past year, of making numerous improvements to its factory layout in order to secure more expeditious production.

Whilst the passing of the Road Haulage Wages Act during the past year, the formation of area wages boards and the progress, made in connection with the vexed problem of rates will undoubtedly contribute a good deal towards the stabilization of the industry, it is, nevertheless, necessary to reiterate pleas made in the past for the amendment of certain anomalous restrictions if road transport is to function in the manner warranted by its importance in the industrial life of the country. The need for vehicles of over 21 tons unladen weight being allowed to operate at speeds up to 30 m.p.h. becomes more sharply apparent as each year sees in the design of the" heavy" types a succession of improvements calculated to give greater safety.

The reclassification of commercial vehicles in terms of gross laden weight for which there is now general concurrence. and a more equitable basis of taxation are all matters of primary importance to the health of the industry and to which the Ministry of Transport might well give inore sympathetic attention during 1919 than it has done in the past.

The enormous trolleybus conversion scheme undertaken by London Transport during the past year has undoubtedly given an impetus to the consideration of other tramways replacement schemes, and as this company has so notably shared in the former as well as in a number of municipal conversions, it is not unreasonable to anticipate that it will do so to the same extent in 1939.

Overseas, where there are manifold opportunities for expansion, the company's success during 1938, particularly in South America, South Africa and Australia, encourages the belief that, as a specialized study has been made of overseas conditions and requirements, there will be a considerable call for Southall-built products during the coming year.

The new year opens in an atmosphere of controversy with the railways requesting the abandonment of statutory rates control and other restrictions and the road transpOrt companies publicizing with considerable intensity the restrictions under which they are compelled to operate.

The outcome cannot be envisaged at this stage: but the hope may be expressed that, whatever, the settlement, it will reflect "a square deal " for an industry employing some 800,000 men, contributing nearly . £90,000,000 per annum to the national exchequer, and which is functioning with the greatest difficulty under its own legislative burden. May 1939 bring relief where it is most needed, and, in the national interest, a spirit of compromise and conciliation between the two primary forms of transport.

c34

Mr. A. W. Hubble. MR . A. W. HUBBLE , M.I.Mech.E., Managing Director, Crossley Motors, Ltd.

IN spite of the fact that new vehicle registi-ations showed a decline during 1938. I consider that, when all factors are taken into account, it was a good year, and that the British motor vehicle trade can congratulate itself on the results obtained. Barring anything in the nature of unforeseen calamity I am of the opinion that prospects for 1939 are bright. Our industry has expanded to its present position despite difficulties, and I think its future will continue to be secure.

In looking at 1939 I am assuming that the lull in new legislation and regulations which the industry has enjoyed during the past year will continue, and that it will be left to develop itself with a minimum of interference.

I am not competent to speak with any authority on the affairs of that great body of users who are the manufacturing industry's customers, but I have heard it said that rate cutting does exist in some measure. If this be true I sincerely hope that users will take the necessary steps among themselves to stamp it out in 1939. Rate cutting can result only in weakening the whole trade, whereas I believe all sections of the community are perfectly willing to pay a fair price for proper service.

I am hoping that 1939 will bring some tangible recognition of the outstanding need for further development of existing roads and the construction of new ones. The transport trade as a whole pays something like £88,000,000 per annum in taxation, and there are many who think that its growth will be checked unless our road system be brought up to date. Other aspects are that such development would provide employment, be of assistance in times of emergency, and, by increasing the home market for vehicles, reduce the cost of production, which in turn would enable this country to compete more favourably overseas.

Incidentally, I would like to pay a tribute to the trade Press, of which The Commercial Motor is so outstanding a member. By keeping the trade up to date in the matters of news and development and focusing our attention on the important highlights, it renders invaluable service to manufacturers and users alike.

MR. H. C. MALLETT, Director and General Manager, Tilling-Stevens, Ltd.

MY motto for this year is" Forget the past and have faith in the future." However, from the commercial-vehicle manufacturers' standpoint, the closing months of 1938 have undoubtedly been much more encouraging than its opening. Although the world's political background is not such as to warrant unduly sanguine hopes, I am sure that, given freedom from further complications and having faith in our leaders, the motor trade prospects for 1939 are extremely bright.

To what extent the Government will assist industry this year is an unknown quantity—we cannot afford any setbacks by way of added taxation. It is obvious that during the recent crisis the Government realized the tremendous value of road transport and in view of the lead already given by the Minister, surely some substantial concession should be given to vehicles using home-produced fuels.

One splendid advance that we have made this year towards safety on the roads is the " plating " of all commercial vehicles, Cannot we now co-operate with a view to obtaining a uniform speed of 30 m.p.h. for all types of commercial vehicle, thereby reverting to the high factor of safety for which the British motor vehicle had a world-wide reputation? If such a concession be made it will obviously help manufacturers in developing the all-important export market, which must be seriously tackled during this year if the British-made vehicle is to keep its eorrect place in the sun.

In view of the increasingly severe foreign competition in our export markets, I am sure that the time is ripe for co-operation between certain commercial-vehicle manufacturers and I hope in the not distant future to be able to promulgate my proposals, which should, to some extent, help to combat this competition.

A matter which should be closely watched in our industry is the growing dearth of skilled labour. As this country is rapidly increasing its massproducing machinery we thereby run the risk of losing our craftsmanship, and if we are not careful we shall lag behind other countries for the very simple reason that they have taken steps to guard against this danger. When will the Government tackle this problem in a more serious and efficient way than they have to date? We must not fail to mobilize, educate and discipline our youth if we are to keep our standard of workmanship which is so high throughout the world.

WRITING immediately on compleVY tion of a highly successful year. I am, naturally, most optimistic concerning the future, so far as the output of British lorzies is concerned. Two

years ago I declared that the aim of my company would be to hold and extend the home market and steadily to develop overseas trade. In every direction the results have been most gratifying.

The popularity of oil-engined vehicles in this country has attracted the attention of overseas transport users. In South Africa especially the municipalities have taken the lead in the use of compression-ignition-engined vehicles • and their example is being widely followed. Success in this field can be attained only by designing vehicles to meet the special needs of overseas users.

The value of overseas trade in roadtransport vehicles is becoming more apparent every day, and as yet the surface has only just been broken. My company will go forward with its policy in the knowledge of a sure foundation having been laid during the five years of its existence, and the prospects of still greater success attending • its efforts,

MR. SYDNEY S. GUY, Managing Director; Guy Motors, Ltd.

WHEN looking to the future, one's IT thoughts at this time are naturally influenced by the shadow of uncertain world events, but, in this connection, the testing time of the crisis proved very definitely the solidarity of the British people in all parts of the world and the necessity of still closer co-operation between the Mother Country and the Colonies and Dominion s.

Tie realization of this interdependence in times of stress can have only a favourable reaction on trade relationships throughout the Empire, and it is anticipated, that definite results in the form of. increased business will accrue. . The British motor industry ,is still building the finest and most reliable commercial vehicles in the world. We have developed types for cross-country work which are in advance of anything produced abroad, and these are already opening up new fields of activity for us. '

In addition, there is very definite evidence that in the past few months there has been a noticeable recovery in the general trade of the country. which is reflected in increased demands for commercial vehicles for all purposes, and, provided nothing untoward happens, which industry cannot control, to arrest this progress 'both in America and this country in particular, I can see every reason for 1939 being a more successful year than the one that has just closed.

MR. F. G. COUCH, Director and Sales Manager, Transport Vehicles (Daimler), Ltd.

THE, prospects for the British industry at home and abroad are bright, and surprisingly good in these times when old and new economic and political methods are engaged in a bitter struggle to find which is the littest to survive, Yet in spite of all disturbing factors ever-inereasing movement of people and goods becomes necessary.

The Government's gigantic rearmament programme is well into its stride, with its accompanying increase in employment and the installation and development of vast factories for the production of almost every kind of engineering product.

Because of the increase in industry, towns and cities are growing at an abnormal rate, and the building of residential districts farther and farther from the city centres provides new business—and new problems—for the transport operator. He in turn needs more rolling stock to carry out his increase of custom, and so the whole industry benefits. These things are well known to most of us, and surely they indicate a further period of prosperity?

I notice that operators of passenger vehicles are increasingly alive to the demands of the travelling public for more comfort, as well as more speed and less noise in the vehicles employed. There is no chance of rest for the manufacturer. His designers and engineers have to maintain a continuous research for improvements in design, manufacture and material. The operator maintains his pressure on the manufacturer and he wants the earth.

His requirements are simple. and three in number, they are:— (a) More passengers (or pay-load). (b) Less fuel consumption and lower chassis weight. (c) Lower cost.

The Minister of Transport exercises his impartiality by (a) Encouraging the operator to ask the manufacturer for more load-capacity. (b) Making regulations to prevent the manufacturer from giving him this, and (c) Controlling the operator's charges lest he make a profit!

So is the manufacturer's life made a burden to him, yet he survives and success generally attends his efforts. By common consent public service vehicles in this country are the best in the world. The increase in the demand from abroad in the past few years shows how widely recognized is the superiority of British types.

The stimulating effects of technical development and invention must not be overlooked. The electric trolleybus is an example. It has already provided much genuine new business for, owing to its electric character, it has enabled trams to be displaced with rather less economic' disturbance in many cases than would be caused by a change to buses and has thus accelerated the adoption of this policy.

Although this type of vehicle will take, I think, about 50 per cent, of the business arising from the replacement of tramway systems, it is diflictilt to see how anything can stop the continued progress of the bus, with its 300-mile range on one tank of fuel, its great efficiency, its low running costs, and its complete mobility—it is not track-bound like the tram and trolleybus—and only the Traffic Commissioners can restrict its use. • What successful developments does the future hold? Will the bodymaker do the chassis manufacturer's job? Will automatic devices perform the driver's gear-changing for him? Will another startling improvement in transmission emerge? Will the oil-engine supersede petrol on heavy vehicles? Will the " producer-gas " merchants successfully seduce the operators with the bribe of a further 50 per cent. reduction in fuel costs? Will the Chancellor of the Exchequer, in that case, watch for his opportunity in the old, old way?

Finally, Mr. Editor, I believe that the road transport trade is going to have a prosperous New Year—and I hope that you will, too. .

MR. H. R. HOOD BARRS, Chairman and Managing Director, Steel Barrel, Scammels and Associated Engineers, Ltd.

PROBABLY it has never been more difficult to forecast the prospects of our trade. I imagine that a shortterm outlook will be the policy for 1939. On the whole I am inclined to take a view of restrained optimism, and for these reasons: The foremost is that the strength of the commercial vehicle lies in its great convenience and advantage. Hundreds of trades depend on it, and it has really become the most important machine in industry.

For these reasons its benefits will not be lost and any legislation based on the "square deal "—those much overworked words—may cause some adjustment of the various classes of licensee but will, in My view, have the effect of increasing the total number of vehicles on the road.

With experience of the questionable methods of the railways since the Road and Rail Traffic Act, and their widespread destruction of the goodwill of their customers, can it be imagined that the " free hand " which they now claim will not result in a fresh crop of dissatisfied customers?

Traders who are selected for discrimination in one form or another will provide their own transport, and this will compel competitors to do the same. Any general reduction of rates by the railways would be suicidal. No sufficient additional traffic to show a profit on this policy is likely -to be forthcom

c38

lug and I seriously doubt whether, even in this unlikely event, more than a very small ,fraction of the present road traffic would be diverted.

The "square deal" if enacted as claimed will again defeat the railways' objects, as I predicted would be the case with the Road and Rail Traffic Act. Industry prefers to provide its own transport rather than be at the mercy of the railways.

It is much to be regretted that politics should again cloud the outlook.

The only consolation is that thoughts on the recent crisis, the good work of the Motor Legislation Committee and the Road Transport Group in the House of Commons, appear to have given road transport a recognized status. The glorious mess in Northern Ireland is an example before the politician.

Where is that elusive five years' road programme? The failure to build roads adequate for the traffic can be described only as a crime against the nation. Roads take time to construct and this may yet prove the most difficult sales resistance to overcome.

Passenger transport will, I forecast, steadily expand. I should prefer to see a reduction of municipal trading in this field. There seem no prospects of any alleviation of the unhappy lot of A and

B licensees. Applications will continue to be restricted by fresh farcical legal decisions and these operators will find legal costs bulk largely in their expenditure.

Increased competition can reasonably be anticipated in overseas markets— even in certain Dominions the competition of subsidized exports from dictator countries to secure foreign currency has already had to be faced. There is, however, a big field for export sales which must steadily grow. The small populations of the Dominions will expand, following on the not unlikely revival. of emigration, which would widen the demand for transport.

The new load plating regulations will result in a new transport outlook and demand for the articulated six-wheeler and light rigid six-wheeler. These types will become of much increased importance to ina.nufacturers to enable them to maintain their factory outputs, and similarly to operators to avoid the loss of present tonnage.

Design is making remarkable progress; large Government orders are in production in many factories;' transport is the life-blood of every community— so that altogether I think that 1939 . opens with a balance in favour of a not unsatisfactory year.

MR. H. LOCKLEY BRODIE, Sales Manager,

Sunbeam Commercial Vehicles, Ltd.

uOW easy it would be to answer the

'question " What are the Prospects for 1939? "if one could be assured that the efforts of the Prime Minister would be received abroad in the spirit that would ensure, for a reasonable period at least, the end of international crises and a restoration of confidence. The answer in that case would be, for all the basic industries of the country, a wave of prosperity greater than any experienced since the War, .

The motor industry, which is one of the main arteries along which the life blood of industrial Britain flows, would of necessity share that prosperity. The restoration of confidence cannot be effected by the wave of a fairy wand, but must be a gradual process—a process which has already commenced.

An examination of the published figures for 1938 indicates clearly that in spite of the troublous periods which have marked the past year, recession in trade has been arrested and that the curve has started on its upward path.

The motor industry—an excellent barometer of the country's trade—substantiates this view. The peak of prosperity will not be reached in 1939 or 1940, for even the most foolish optimist would not suggest that, as a nation, our troubles are over.

It behoves us as an industry to keep in mind our own mineral resources and to pay still more attention to the perfection of vehicles propelled by home produced fuel. In the case Of extreme national emergency, with the demands of the Navy and the mercantile marine, the expansion of the Air Force and the mechanization of the Army, it is cer

tam n that imported fuel will be subjected to the strictest rationing. This has been clearly indicated by the Government and it is pleasing to note the progress made in 1938 in the development of vehicles using home-produced fuels, such as the trolleybus, batteryelectric and producer-gas vehicles.

For goods carrying I look for greater advancement in the perfection of the producer-gas vehicle during the current year ; it has much to commend it on its own merits, apart from its value in case of emergency, and the same applies to the battery-electric — an excellent vehicle for short-distance work. Similarly, for the transportation of passengers in congested areas', the trolleybus continues, and will continue, to make steady progress.

The trolleybus is the natural successor to the tramcar and fills a most useful place in . the scheme of the nation's transport, with many things to commend it in its own particular sphere, which is a large and important one.

It is difficult to understand why, during the past year, attempts* have been made in certain directions -6 deprecate the trolleybus and to prove by statistics' that it is. not economical to operate. In refutation of this one hats to point only to the success of the large trolleybus undertakings, both at home and overseas; and tb the steady expansion of their respective trolleybus

systemi by experienced operators.. '

Another type of passenger vehicle not yet adOpted in -this country, but due for• the attention of operators and manufacturers alike, is the " all service" vehicle, petrol Of oil-cum-trolleybus, which has already 'made its debut in the United States. It is possible to envisage a useful purpose for such a vehicle, the design of which in suitable form for operation in this country and complying with Ministry of Transport regulations bristles with difficulties, But the motor industry thrives on overcoming such difficulties.

There is every reason also to anticipate a continuance in the increase in the number of British-made vehicles exported overseas, particularly to countries which are members of the British Commonwealth It is gratifying to observe in many of the Dominions where the outlook foi future trade and prosperity is also on the upgrade a very definite tendency to " Buy British," where both goods and passenger vehicles are concerned, often in the face of low-price temptations from countries where export industries are subsidized It, unfortunately, •a case of " extreme national emergency " should arise, the whole energy of the industry, both manufacturer and operator will prove one of the nation's strongest bulwarks.

There is, however, reason to hope that when the time comes again to review the position we may find conditions more settled and that the history of the Industry for 1939 will show that , it has been possible to apply its vast resources along normal, peaceful lines

COMMANDER J. W. THORNYCROFT,

Commerciai-'vehicle Saks Manager, John I. Thornycroft and Co., Ltd.

TRANSPORT is a subject that is I very much in the news at the present tiine, and much depends on the developments of the near future as to whether the road-transport industry is to progress and to prosper. It is evident. to all connected with either the manufacture or operation of road vehicles that the present system of licensing, together with the multitudinous regulations and restrictions, is unsatisfactory, and particularly so in regard to the conditions governing the 30 m.p.h. speed limit.

The fact that operators of vehicles of comparatively, light construction are encouraged to carry loads far greater than those for which the chassis have been designed, without any other legal limitation than that the gross weight laden should not exceed 12 tons, or the laden weight of any one' axle exceed 8 tons, Is detrimental to the progress of the indusfry'and to the encouragement of safe and reliable machines

suitable for home and export markets. ' My opinion is that taxation should be fixed on a gross-weight-laden basis, the steps between each taxation class being in hundredweights. I would further suggest that there is a strong case for the 30 m.p.h. speed limit to be extended to all rigid-frame vehicles operating solo, irrespective of their load-carrying capacity.

To protect manufacturers against excessive overloading of the lighter types of vehicle, I strongly uphold the method of rating by capacity plates, on which the maximum gross laden running weight is to be shown, together with the minimum tyre size suitable to carry that load.. In this connection the tyre makers have recently issued a new load schedule, which should do much to obtain uniform ratings.

Dealing now with the need for transport in time of war, much has been written already regarding the essential requirements of adequate road-transport services should a national emergency arise. It will be sufficient to say here that from this aspect alone it is of the utmost importance that the industry should be allowed to develop along progressive lines without undue restrictions.

As regards the prospects overseas, due to the construction of greatly improved roads in many countries there should be increasing opportunities for making export sales of those types designed essentially for home use if legislation does not encourage freak models, and this will ensure production economies due to greater standardization of types. At the same time, as pioneer road services are opened up in the less welldeveloped countries, the specialized vehicle of the cross-country type, such as my company has manufactured and developed since the Great War, is likely to remain in demand. for many years to come.

LT.-COL. D. C. McLAGAN,D.S.O., Secretary, The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

ALTHOUGH the past year was one of exceptional political and economic unrest, the production of commercial-motor vehicles in the United Kingdom during the 12 months ended September, 1938, shows a decrease of only 10.96 per cent, on the corresponding period of 1937. Home sales figures for the two periods show a decrease of less than 13 per cent, for last year. If consideration be given to two factors not included in this percentage, namely, exempted vehicles and H.M. Government purchases for mechanization reserve, the decrease is considerably less. In the circumstances, in fact, the falling off is not so great as it might have been, and is certainly less than that prophesied by such pessimists as are always with us.

It may be stated also that the latest trend in commercial-vehicle sales is in the right direction, and that the United Kingdom industry shows no signs

whatever of a permanent recession. There is in the industry already a spirit of buoyancy which augurs well for 1939, and it may well be that the motor industry as a whole will, as it did in 1932, lead the country to another period of prosperity.

On the other hand, apart from the discouragement indigenous to political unrest, the industry still labours under serious clifficultieg—a heavy burden of taxation, a multitude of restrictive regulations and a road system entirely inadequate for its needs.

The road-transport interests have no objection at all to the railways being given a " square deal " ; they would welcome it ; but are fully entitled, at the same tim, to demand one for their

own industry. The square deal for which the railways are asking is that they shall be freed from various restrictions. We in the motor industry consider that demand reasonable. It should not, however, be forgotten that our own industry is taxed beyond any justification, is subject to restrictive regulations far more intense than those of the railways, and is denied a road system good enough for it to operate anywhere near to its capabilities.

Most serious of all, no other industry than that of the road haulier in the U.K. is similarly required to restrict the size of his fleet according totrade requirements, as represented by his competitors, or to operate his fleet on only a limited period.

In the export field, the solidarity of the industry's position is impressive. One may be fully alive to the nature and to the strength of German competition, and to the need for energetic measures to be adopted officially with the object of combating this menace, yet at the same time one may point to features of the situation which should serve to counteract any feeling of grave apprehension as to its ultimate scope and consequences.

MR. R. J. TURNER, Chairman, The Institute of Export.

A S year succeeds year the reliability

land reputation of the British commercial vehicle become steadily enhanced, and there is no doubt that it can hold its own, given a fair opportunity, in any markets of the world.

In certain directions abroad the commendable enterprise of various manufacturers will, save for any further interference with trade, continue to bear good fruit, although all must recognize the impossibility, in these troublous and uncertain times, of attempting to predict the trend of trade. We do know, however, that the New Year has opened with a number of favourable features, which give rise to somewhat more confidence and hope for the coming year than was justified in 1938. It can certainly be said that now, probably more than at any other time in our history, attention is focused on the vital importance to this country of export trade, also that this is a fact which is well recognized.

But no matter to what extent manufacturers may have asserted themselves in the past, the call to-day is for a still more aggressive policy in addressing themselves to trade openings abroad. That admittedly postulates certain other essentials, without which no real progress can be made. Perhaps these can best be summed up in the one word "knowledge," Knowledge of markets, their possibilities, their requirements, their restrictions and their regulations, the sales technique they demand, and innumerable other things which go to make or mar successful trading.

To-day is the day of the specialist in export, as much, if not more, than in any other calling. Manufacturers who recognize that it is a national duty to sell overseas, and to the greatest possible extent, will doubtless satisfy themselves that trade openings will not be stultified, or opportunities lost, for the sake of entrusting their overseas business to a qualified executive, supported by properly trained assistants. No longer can one who has excelled himself in some aspect of business at home necessarily be expected to make a success of selling overseas.

Now more than ever there is a disposition to provide manufacturers with the assistance they need for selling abroad. It is possible to ensure to them the services of a properly qualified staff, and that the personnel be kept in touch with constantly changing conditions. There are greater opportunities to-day for exporters as a whole to exert their influence on the development of political and economic policy, both at home and abroad, with a view to bringing about the proper recognition of the fundamental importance of international trade.

The proper accomplishment of this long-range aim, however, does demand that many exporters should overcome their practice of working in solitary seclusion, and in its place to combine with others in bringing about certain fundamental necessities. The manufacturer, for example, cannot get along without the shipowner, or vice versa. Both have a common interest, both have a common aim. There is obviously room for co-operation and an exchange of experience and knowledge between them and all other exporting interests.

Given the strength which comes from unity there is no reason why a radical change should not be brought about in the conditions governing overseas trade, in which motor-vehicle manufacturers should be amongst the first to benefit.